Part 9 of 12 in the Crypto Survival Guide Series
Let’s talk about the future.
Not the hopium-fueled “ETH to $10K, alt season any day now” future that crypto Twitter sells.
The realistic future – where you’re trying to figure out what you’d actually do if things recover, and whether you even want to stay in this game at all.
This is the weird space between “still holding” and “planning my exit,” where you’re sketching strategies for the next cycle while simultaneously wondering if there should be a next cycle for you.
Let me show you what that looks like from inside my head.
The Ideal Strategy (If I Stay In Crypto)
If – and this is a big if – I decide to keep playing after recovery, here’s what I’m thinking:
The Multi-Range Rotation Strategy
Ideally, I’d have 3-4 pairs with staggered ranges set up so they’re not all peaking at the same time.
The concept:
- Set up multiple LP positions with different crypto pairs
- Each pair has its own range based on its typical volatility
- When CryptoX hits the top of its range, I pull most of it out
- Move that capital into CryptoY, which is near the bottom of its range
- Watch CryptoY climb, then rotate again
The pairs I was considering testing:
- ARB/USDC
- BNB/USDC
- LINK/USDC
- MATIC (POLY)/USDC
- BTC/USDC
The idea is that if the ranges are consistent and repeating – and not fully synchronized – I could shuffle capital between them and capture volatility without trying to time the overall market.
This is basically treating LP ranges like rotating limit orders.
It’s more active than “set it and forget it,” but not day-trading. More like “check in weekly and rebalance when ranges hit their targets.”
The Alternative: Wide-Only Strategy With Staggered Peaks
If the multi-range rotation feels too fiddly, the simpler version:
- Set up 3-4 wide-range LPs
- Each pair naturally peaks at different times (based on sector, narrative, correlation)
- When one peaks, harvest profits
- Redeploy into whichever pair is currently at the low end
Same concept, less precision required.
The goal in both cases: Stop trying to predict where the market goes. Just capture movement and compound over time.
The Problem: My Interest Has Diminished
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
With the market being down, my interest level in pursuing these other pools has diminished.
When everything’s paralyzed and I’m sitting on losses, the idea of setting up new test positions feels less like “strategic positioning” and more like “throwing good money after bad.”
The enthusiasm I had a few months ago – when I was learning LPs and fees were rolling in – is just… gone.
It’s not that I think the strategies are bad. It’s that I’m emotionally tapped out.
And that’s a problem, because the best time to set up positions is probably when I least feel like doing it – when prices are low, sentiment is terrible, and everyone’s walking away.
But I’m not there yet. Maybe I won’t be.
What I’m Actually Watching: BTC Dominance and Capitulation Signals
I’m not obsessively tracking a dozen indicators. I’m watching two things:
1. Bitcoin Dominance
Right now, BTC dominance is in the high 50s.
During the last alt season – when alts were actually moving – BTC dominance was in the mid-40s.
If BTC dominance drops back toward the 40s, I’ll start to become hopeful again.
That would signal capital rotating from Bitcoin into alts, which is what I need for most of my positions to recover.
Until then? I’m just watching BTC absorb all the capital while my alts sit there doing nothing.
2. A Significant BTC Correction
This one sounds counterintuitive, but hear me out:
When BTC finally has a real correction, I’ll actually be more hopeful – not less.
Why? Because right now, BTC is holding up while alts bleed. That’s not healthy market structure. That’s fear and concentration.
A sharp BTC drop – followed by a bounce – could signal:
- Capitulation and flush-out of weak hands
- A reset that brings capital back into risk assets (alts)
- The beginning of a new cycle rather than just prolonged bleeding
I’m not hoping for BTC to crash and stay down. I’m hoping for a washout that clears the path for actual recovery.
Right now, we’re just stuck in this slow-motion deterioration where nothing’s dead but nothing’s alive either.
The Milestones That Matter
Here’s what would actually change my behavior:
Milestone 1: Get Back to Even
If I could get even – or close enough that the losses feel manageable – I’d probably pull most of the money out.
Not all of it. But most.
Then I’d set up small test positions (the $100-$500 range) to stay in the game without the emotional weight of real money on the line.
This would let me:
- Learn and experiment without the stress
- Stay engaged if opportunities arise
- Stop the remorse I feel when I look at my paralyzed holdings
And honestly? Being partially snowed in this week hasn’t helped. When you’re stuck at home with nothing to do but look at your portfolio, the remorse gets louder.
Milestone 2: If Everything Turns Around
Here’s the thing I’m honest about:
If everything recovers, I might flip all of my present intentions to something more positive.
Right now I’m saying, “If I get even, I’m mostly out. Crypto becomes a hobby with tiny positions.”
But if ETH hits $5K and my alts follow and I’m suddenly up 30-40%?
Will I actually pull out, or will I convince myself that now I know what I’m doing and the next cycle will be different?
I don’t know.
I’d like to think I’ll stick to my rules. But I also know that winning changes your risk tolerance just as much as losing does.
Milestone 3: December 31, 2026
Both my algo bots and my crypto are in the same mental “silo” now.
This is the time they need to win. If they can’t do that, they become a hobby – or they’re gone.
Not because I’m angry or vindictive. But because I can’t justify the losses to my accountant or my wife any further.
My wife retires in summer 2026. Every dollar I’ve lost in bots and crypto is a dollar we won’t have for travel, hobbies, and the life we’ve been working toward. As her retirement approaches, both her tolerance and mine for ongoing losses is decreasing.
The conversations aren’t fun. The explanations are harder every time. And at some point, “I’m learning” stops being a valid reason for continued losses.
If bots and crypto can’t produce during the next upswing, they get moved to the “fun to watch and track, but emotionally small enough that it can’t hurt me again” category.
And my blog becomes a way to tell a story about far less money in the market.
That’s not failure. That’s just recognizing when something isn’t working and adjusting accordingly.
The Three Possible Futures
When I think about planning my next move, I see three paths:
Path 1: The Comeback
- Market recovers
- My positions come back into range or regain value
- I execute the harvest/reload strategy successfully
- I come out ahead and either cash out or continue with much smaller, strategic positions
Likelihood: Possible, but requires both market recovery and disciplined execution
How I’d feel: Relieved. Grateful for a second chance. Probably a bit gun-shy about going all in again.
Path 2: The Managed Exit
- Market recovers enough that I get close to even
- I pull most of the capital out, relieved to escape without catastrophic loss
- I keep tiny test positions to stay engaged
- Crypto becomes a hobby with blog-worthy stories but no real financial stakes
Likelihood: Honestly, this feels most realistic right now
How I’d feel: A mix of relief (it’s over) and mild regret (what if I’d just been more patient?).
Path 3: The Hard Lesson
- Market doesn’t recover (or takes years)
- I eventually close positions at losses
- I walk away from crypto entirely, chalking it up to expensive education
- The blog becomes a cautionary tale about first-cycle mistakes
Likelihood: More likely than Path 1, less likely than Path 2.
How I’d feel: Disappointed, but not devastated. Grateful I kept it at 5% so it didn’t ruin anything important.
The “Silo” Strategy (How I Keep Going Without Losing My Mind)
Here’s how I’ve reframed bots and crypto in my head:
They live in a silo.
Not my main investment portfolio. Not my retirement. Not even my “serious money.”
They’re a separate compartment – fun to watch, interesting to track, but emotionally small enough that they can’t destroy me.
If they want to hurt me again, they’ll have to make me love them first.
And right now? I’m not letting that happen.
This isn’t about killing my interest entirely. It’s about protecting myself from the cycle of hope → disappointment → stress that consumed too much of my mental energy in the first year.
The silo lets me stay engaged without being consumed.
And if December 31, 2026 arrives and they haven’t earned the right to stay?
Then they leave the silo entirely. And I move on without looking back.
The Rotation Strategy In Practice (If I Ever Get There)
Let me walk through what the multi-range rotation would actually look like, assuming I’m still in the game:
Step 1: Set up 3-4 LP positions
- Each with a defined range based on historical volatility
- Example:
- LINK/USDC: $12 – $20
- ARB/USDC: $0.60 – $1.20
- BTC/USDC: $85K – $110K
Step 2: Monitor weekly (not daily)
- Check which positions are near range tops
- Check which positions are near range bottoms
Step 3: When Position X hits the top 10% of its range
- Pull 70-80% of the liquidity out
- Keep 20-30% in to maintain the position
Step 4: Immediately redeploy into Position Y (near its range bottom)
- Don’t sit in stablecoins waiting for “the perfect time”
- Just rotate into whichever pair is currently low
Step 5: Repeat
- Capture volatility without predicting direction
- Compound fees and harvest profits systematically
This only works if:
- The ranges are predictable and repeating
- I’m actually disciplined about pulling profits at range tops
- The market isn’t just one-directional collapse
Big ifs.
The Question I Can’t Answer Yet
Here’s what I’m still wrestling with:
If I have to work this hard, monitor this much, and accept this much risk… why not just put the money in an index fund and call it a day?
The “refuse to babysit” philosophy that brought me to LPs in the first place doesn’t mesh well with weekly rotations and range management.
And if the answer is “because crypto has higher upside,” then I need to be honest about whether that upside is worth:
- The mental load
- The tax complexity
- The relationship stress
- The constant feeling that I might be making another mistake
I don’t have the answer yet.
Maybe I will after the next cycle. Maybe I won’t need one because I’ll have already exited.
Either way, the planning continues – even if the conviction doesn’t.
Up Next: In Part 10, we’ll zoom all the way out and talk about the long game – what “sustainable crypto investing” actually means, how much of your life this should consume, and whether crypto fits into a normal person’s portfolio at all.
